The global trade walking in the tortuous adjustment
Author:sanyuan Time:2016-02-23 17:55:30
Pakistani paper "Dawn" quoted Reuters on February 17, reported that global trade may be in the worst period since the last economic recession in 2008. Accoding to analysis, this can not be attributed to the financial system tighten up. Whether this is because of the cyclical slowdown, globalization, or structural decline of economics, they will be harbingers for the coming months or even years of a gloomy global economic prospect.
China and India's trade report released Monday is showing a sign of weak economics, indicating further that global trade is slowing down, or even declining. In January, China's exports fell 11.2%, imports fell 18.8%, making it the first time of a 15 consecutive months of decline. This is not entirely caused by the economy slowdown in Asia, for China exports to the US fell 9.9 percent, and its exports to the EU decreased by 12% as well. India on Monday also announced that its January's exports fell 13.6%, and South Korean reported exports fell by 8% in 2015, the worst performance since the peak of the crisis period.
Danish shipping group Maersk (AP Moller-Maersk) said last week that people are facing the most depressed business environment since the last crisis. Charter dry bulk carrier prices fell sharply, dropped 75% within about six months, set a lowest record for now; Compared with 2015, this year's US rail freight has fallen 15.7% so far.
From 1950 to 2008, global trade growth rate has been three times the growth rate of the global economy after World War II, reflecting the rapid growth in global trade. China and the eastern bloc's integration into the global economy since the fall of Soviet Union greatly helped this process. In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, concerns have rising about the banking system, and makes companies difficult to obtain financing. It has led to significant slowing down of global trade. Even though a brief recovery in global trade growth is followed by, global trade growth rate is only roughly match the level of global economic growth for the last few years, and this year it might be far below the level of economic growth.
Luckily, the global trade this year is expected to remain positive growth. Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis's data is currently only as of November last year, but the last three months show an increase of less than 2%. Combined with the latest data, the possibility of a further decline in growth in 2016 is very likely to happen, and the global growth may be as low as 1-2%. In retrospect, the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted global trade growth for this year to be 3.3% last September, which is a very optimistic figure at present.